NDRC Responds to Census Bureau’s Updated Population Estimates for 2025

Washington, D.C. – This week, the U.S. Census Bureau released updated statewide population estimates showing that the U.S. population increased by 1.8 million from July 2024 to July 2025, with Texas and Florida experiencing the largest population growth.  

Based on these estimates, Texas would gain four additional congressional seats, and Florida would gain two in reapportionment following the 2030 Census. Arizona, Idaho, Utah and North Carolina would likely each gain one additional congressional seat. Meanwhile, based on these estimates, California would lose three congressional seats, and several other states would each lose one congressional seat, including Illinois, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. These estimates mostly mirror projections NDRC released last year, based on data from the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). 

“The latest round of census data, paired with the fact that most population growth has occurred in diverse, urban and suburban areas while most population decreases have occurred in primarily white, rural areas, continues to support our projections that metropolitan areas in southern and western states will experience significant growth ahead of 2030,” said John Bisognano, President of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC). “It’s no coincidence that Republicans have enacted mid-decade gerrymanders in states like Texas and North Carolina by drawing maps that aim to further silence the very communities driving the most population growth—and they are considering doing the same in Florida. That’s because Republicans are seeing these trends, too, and they are terrified of the voters. This dynamic underscores the need for Democratic states to act with urgency to ensure we can ultimately protect a representative democracy.”

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