Washington, D.C. — Today, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC), issued a memo from the organization’s President, John Bisognano, that outlines updated apportionment projections for the coming decade following the 2030 Census.

According to NDRC’s analysis, population growth in states likely to gain congressional seats in the 2030 apportionment – including Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and Utah – was driven largely by increases in diverse, metropolitan areas.

In the memo, Bisognano warns that many of these fast growing states projected to gain seats are already gerrymandered, and could be gerrymandered further in the next decade. 

The full memo is available here. Excerpts from the memo are below:

“The growth that can be seen in states like Texas and Florida is the result of population growth specifically in diverse, metropolitan, Democratic-leaning urban centers. This trend suggests that the country is not seeing a uniform partisan shift, but instead a geographic redistribution of the population. This means that America is not reddening, blue dots are shifting into conservative states.”

“Although many may look at first glance as though there is a significant shift in population from historically blue states to historically red states, the truth lies deep in the details – America is changing.”

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“Maps in several of the fastest-growing states already unfairly—and illegally—dilute the people’s voting power, a problem that could worsen over the next decade as population shifts further exacerbate the impact of extreme partisan gerrymandering in these states. Florida and Texas demonstrate this threat.”

“In Florida, the state enacted a map that dismantled a long-standing Black opportunity district in the northern part of the state. The Secretary of State, the House of Representatives and the State Senate all admitted in legal filings that this map diminishes the voting power of Black Floridians.”

“In Texas, the congressional map is being challenged in court for violating the Voting Rights Act of 1965. That map increased the number of majority-white districts and reduced the number of districts where people of color can elect the candidate of their choice, despite the fact that 95% of the state’s population growth as reflected in the 2020 Census came from communities of color in the previous decade.”

“If the status quo remains, these states will likely enact maps that continue to ignore population trends and are drawn to try to lock in political power for Republicans despite those trends, resulting in even more egregious gerrymanders.”

ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND:

NDRC’s projections are based on data provided by the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), which released its 2025/2030 Updated Demographics report this week, integrating census data with multiple sources—USPS delivery data, building permits, real estate transactions, and more to closely track population changes.

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