• Press Release

New Census Bureau Data Poses Hurdle to Further GOP Gerrymandering

Washington, D.C. – Updated population estimates released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau show that, despite slower population growth than in previous years, urban and suburban counties continue to see relatively more rapid growth, outpacing that of rural regions of the country. According to the Census Bureau, “metro areas grew faster (0.6%) than micro areas (0.2%) or the territory outside of metro/micro areas (0.1%).” 

“Population growth in diverse, urban and suburban areas continues to drive not only the population growth in states with higher population growth, but also across the country,” said John Bisognano, President of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC). “Politicians seeking to further gerrymander states that already deny people equal representation and crack major metropolitan areas, as well as the communities surrounding them, are going to find that nefarious task increasingly difficult. This endless effort to insulate themselves from voter accountability will inevitably backfire.”

The population changes at the county and metropolitan levels illustrate a fundamental challenge for politicians in currently gerrymandered states seeking to further gerrymander their electoral maps by cracking urban and suburban metro regions.

In Florida, the Orlando metropolitan area is the fastest-growing region in the state. This region has already been gerrymandered to prevent the congressional districts from becoming more competitive. Further cracking these seats and combining them with slower-growing regions like that of South Central Florida, or towards the Villages in Sumter County, will pose a significant challenge for the state legislature.

Texas contains four of the top ten fastest-growing metro areas in the country—Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio—and has aggressively gerrymandered these regions. As the Democratic population grows in urban and suburban regions, outpacing that in rural areas within the same districts, it could become more competitive over time.

Idaho is seeing a similar trend. The Boise metropolitan area accounted for 65% of the state’s population growth.

The data also tells a similar story in Utah, where Salt Lake City continues to expand rapidly, accounting for nearly 10% of the state’s overall growth in the last year.  The new congressional map created as a result of Utah’s independent redistricting reforms includes a district that reflects the region’s growing population, which was diluted by the previous gerrymander. As Salt Lake City grows, cracking it and diluting the votes of residents from less populated, more rural regions of the state will become increasingly difficult. 

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